30 Apr 2026

“It’s too early” does a great deal of work as an argument because it sounds prudent, yet in practice it is often a way of deferring a decision that is becoming harder to ignore.

What is usually meant is simply that the technology is not yet fully mature, which is true of quantum and was equally true of every transformative technology at the point it began to matter… just like with AI.

The pattern seen in AI is instructive, as many organisations treated progress as incremental or overhyped until capability and adoption converged faster than expected, leaving a small group of early movers in a disproportionately strong position, not because the technology was finished but because they understood that learning curves are long and that waiting for maturity often means conceding advantage.

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